Research

Papers

My research studies the design, communication and transmission of monetary policy in an interconnected global economy: how central-bank narratives shape inflation and interest-rate expectations, how policy communication is priced into financial markets and the term structure, and how monetary and energy shocks propagate through the wider economy.

Publications

• Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Geopolitical Uncertainty

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 162, 2026Published

  Abstract

  Geopolitical uncertainty can blunt the transmission of monetary policy, obliging central banks to adapt both their instruments and their communication in order to keep market expectations anchored. Taking the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership as a leading case, the paper examines how the Bank of England combined conventional and unconventional measures with forward guidance. Long-dated yields are decomposed into a risk-neutral component and a term premium, and text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes is used to measure the stance of policy, attitudes towards quantitative easing and the intensity of geopolitical uncertainty. Communication is found to have complemented the policy stance and to have held down the term premium that uncertainty would otherwise have pushed higher.

  DOI

Working papers

• Narratives and the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

  with J. Benchimol

  CAMA Working Paper 29/2026, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU

  Abstract

  The paper traces how inflation language in FOMC statements and in the Chair’s press conferences maps into the breakeven inflation term structure between two and ten years. Five indices capture the policy stance, broad and current inflation language, and the Delphic–Odyssean decomposition of guidance. Conditional on the high-frequency rate surprise, statement language is associated with lower breakeven inflation at short and intermediate maturities, consistent with markets reading committee-vetted text through the policy reaction function. Press conferences behave differently: outlook-oriented language loads positively on long-horizon forwards, while commitment language compresses the short-to-intermediate segment. Intraday evidence localises the press-conference effect within the Chair’s speaking window.

  PDF

• Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  IMF Working Paper WP/24/160, 2024

  Abstract

  Following the 2016 referendum on EU membership and the uncertainty that surrounded the eventual consequences of Brexit, the Bank of England used a combination of conventional measures, unconventional measures and forward guidance to influence market rates. To assess the effectiveness of that communication, long-dated yields are first decomposed into a risk-neutral component and a term premium; text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes then measures the stance of policy and attitudes towards quantitative easing and Brexit. Communication is found to have complemented the easing delivered through Bank Rate and asset purchases, and to have lowered the term premium that Brexit uncertainty might otherwise have raised.

  DOI

• The Role of Central Bank Knowledge and Trust for the Public’s Inflation Expectations

  with T. Schmidt

  Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 32/2018

  Abstract

  Since the financial crisis central banks have emphasised trust and communication as means of aligning the public’s inflation expectations with their own. Drawing on a representative survey of individuals living in Germany, the paper measures how much the public actually knows about the ECB and the Bundesbank and how far it trusts them, and examines how both shape inflation expectations. Although most respondents believe they know the two institutions well, only around one in five names price stability when asked directly about their objectives.

  PDF SSRN

• Turning Minutes into Measures: Text-Mining MPC Communication

  with A. Hantzsche

  National Institute Economic Review, 246(1), F22–F23, 2018

Work in progress

• FED’s Inflation Narrative and Inflation Markets Decomposition

  with J. Benchimol

  2026

• Demand and Supply Inflation Factors from the Bank of England’s Talk

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  2026

• Monetary and Oil Shocks on the Italian Energy System

  2026

• National Central Bank Communications in Uncertain Times

  2026

Policy and blog writing

• The Impact of Brexit on Bond Prices

  UK in a Changing Europe, 2020

• Bremia: A Study of the Impact of Brexit on Bond Prices

  with C. Macchiarelli

  NIESR Blog, 2020

• The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Private Inflation Expectations

  John Cabot University Seminar, 2019

• Turning Minutes into Measures: Text-Mining MPC Communication

  with A. Hantzsche

  NIESR Blog, 2018

Selected talks

• 2023A Shocked World: How It Was, How It Is, How It Might Be — lecture, SDA Bocconi School of Management
• 2020UK in a Changing Europe Virtual Conference on the Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers, University of Oxford
• 2019Joint Research Centre – CAS Workshop on Big Data and Economic Forecasting, European Commission
• 2019Royal Economic Society Annual Conference
• 2019MMF PhD Conference, City, University of London (with the Bank of England and Birkbeck College)
• 2019Seminar, John Cabot University, Italy
• 2017Internal seminar, Economic Research Centre, Deutsche Bundesbank
• 2017Royal Economic Society Symposium of Junior Researchers, University of Bristol

© 2026 Sathya Mellina. Views expressed here are my own and do not represent those of Enel Group or any other institution.